Curiously -- Why 1985?

[DigitalRommel]

I'm curious why many modern wargames (not just WaW85) have focused on 1985 as the fictional year of the NATO vs. Warsaw Pact war? If you know, please reply.

I would only guess it was based on Hackett's The Third World War: August 1985 book, but Hackett wrote his book before 1979 to describe a future conflict.

I think it's somewhat objectively believed now that 1983 was the high water mark of the Cold War. The crisis finally abated with the death of Yuri Andropov very early in 1984. More interesting, unlike the well known 1962 cuban missile crisis, the USSR was actually closer to military parity in 1983 and knew it.

 

[seneffe1]

just my personal opinions-

I'm not sure that there is a generally accepted date for a high water mark year in political terms- 1983 is a good candidate but not the only one. It's true that Andropov's death removed an implacable (though very frail) hardliner from the scene- but he was replaced by someone not much less hard line- though even more frail. In both those cases general conflict was made more likely by their frailty- in the sense of them being unable to control even harder line factions at the top- a 'virtual coup'. Relations with the West began to warm with Gorbachev but there was also an identified risk (not necessarily any active plot of course) of an actual coup against him, or the possibility of him having to act against type in some international situation to demonstrate toughness- which then could escalate.

So in the political sphere the component risk factors changed a lot from 1983-86, but the overall risk equation didn't necessarily change quite so much or so quickly.

In the military sense I'd say that 1985 is a pretty good year for a variety of reasons. In terms of the conventional military balance on the Central Front, after years of effective acceptance of a very early use of nuclear weapons in case of an invasion on the Central Front- this was the period when the possibility that NATO might actually be able to halt at least the first WARPAC strategic echelon by conventional means alone started to be discussed as a serious question. Doctrinal changes in NATO (particularly but not just USAREUR) backed up by the arrival of substantial amounts of new generation equipment was starting to have an appreciable effect by 1985. Looking back at western military literature of the 1980s- in the 1985-6 time frame, there starts to be a lot more discussion of how a conventional conflict might be won- or at least prolonged beyond the point where the Soviets would risk their alliance breaking up.

Of course the Soviet military was improving its conventional forces too in this time frame- but it was not making the step changes seen in the bigger NATO armies. The WARPAC allied armies were really falling behind. My reading of the material is a clear sense that Western conventional improvements were a fundamental source of concern to the Soviet military.

1985 also feels like an interesting mix of older and newer equipment on both sides (eg getting towards 50/50 M1s and M60A3s in USAREUR; T62s, T64s and T80s all present in substantial numbers in GSFG).

 

[Gorby]

Besides the cultural and political points the seneffe1 made very well, I'd also say that, culturally, 1985 is something of a watershed moment in terms of popular culture's relationship with the military. Rambo came out in '85 and opened the floodgates for those classic mid-to-late 80s military action films. Iron Eagle came out in January '86, Top Gun not long thereafter. There were plenty of others, of course. I think that, subconsciously at least, setting the game in '85-'86 gives a bit more immediate visceral excitement to a certain number of people. '83 was a dour, boring year (aside from Jedi) and by '87 we're well into the summit era, which makes fictional conflicts seem even more far-fetched.

 

[Norman Stewart]

I'd like to hear from LnL on why 1985 was chosen.

Random, before M1 upgrades increased their edge, most plausible political atmosphere for war to break out, leave plenty of time till 1989?

 

[CRFout]

FWIW - So there I was, West Berlin, Spring 1989. Communism was teetering on the edge, and absolutely no one knew which way things would go.

Through a series of minor misadventures, Berlin accidentally sent a message that the balloon had gone up, and we were under attack. And then Berlin went off the air. Pandemonium ensued in USAREUR. The "this is not a drill" alert went out, and every unit activated its war plan. War stocks were issued. V Corps requested permission to cross the 1km holding line. VII Corps requested permission to counterattack into Czechoslovakia. Then Corps and Army artillery units requested nuclear release.

And that was where things started to calm down. The nuclear depot guards were on a different commo system, direct to the Pentagon. And they hadn't heard about anything going on. And they weren't about to start handing out nuclear weapons without proper procedures. So phone calls were made.

Meanwhile, Berlin came back on the air. (The appropriate people came back from lunch. Yes, really.) "No, we're not under attack. Why are you asking? Is there something going on that we should know about?"

And that's the time Berlin nearly started WWIII on the eave of peace. The day's activities were later announced to have been a no-notice drill. (It did serve to show where plans needed to be changed to ease traffic congestion.) It's generally remembered by the troops who were in the West at the time as "The day the First Sergeant looked scared." The Staff Sergeant responsible quickly became a Private. The First Lieutenant nominally in charge disavowed all knowledge, and received an verbal reprimand.

The Soviet scouts and commanders rhetorically had to change their trousers, then asked each other, "What just happened over there?"

 

[Uhlanfan]

I'm curious why many modern wargames (not just WaW85) have focused on 1985 as the fictional year of the NATO vs. Warsaw Pact war? If you know, please reply.

I would only guess it was based on Hackett's The Third World War: August 1985 book, but Hackett wrote his book before 1979 to describe a future conflict.

I think it's somewhat objectively believed now that 1983 was the high water mark of the Cold War. The crisis finally abated with the death of Yuri Andropov very early in 1984. More interesting, unlike the well known 1962 cuban missile crisis, the USSR was actually closer to military parity in 1983 and knew it.

Berlin Notes



I was fortunate (and honored) to serve under President Reagan as a Senior NCO in the US Army, stationed in the occupied city of West Berlin from 1981 to 1984. The Cold War was at its peak then, mostly as a clear confrontation between NATO (commercial west) and the Warsaw Pact (communist east). President Reagan made his first official visit to West Berlin in June of 1982 and spoke initially to those of us in the Allied military forces stationed there. This was long before his famous ‘Wall’ speech.





Membership in NATO was formed from western allies voluntarily. Membership in Warsaw Pact was formed, and enforced by Soviet forces, in countries they invaded during World War II. Any country that tried to leave the Warsaw Pact because of freedom movements (East Germany (DDR) / Hungary / Czechoslovakia) faced violent suppression by the Soviet forces. It appeared similar events would happen in Poland during the 1980’s.





We were able to see the evils of communism everyday in the DDR. Oftentimes in areas just across the street or closer. Escape attempts and retribution were pretty common occurrences with blatant and often loud results. Everyone on that side suffered in some form or other from food shortages to blatant brutality.





I was attached to the Military Intelligence (MI) Detachment as an interrogator tasked with interviewing defectors (Border Guard / Military) and refugees (civilians) from all of the various Pact countries. They were all fleeing similar oppression with vivid stories of their own. We had an almost constant flow during my time there.



We were especially concerned about events in Poland as the Solidarity Union disturbances were watched closely by the Soviet seniors. During one of my interviews with a Polish officer who had defected; I asked him what would happen if the Pact forces invaded Poland to suppress the activities… … would the Polish military fight or not. His answer was both humorous and cynical. He said:



“Your question presents a very serious issue for Polish soldiers to answer; do we do our duty to people and country by shooting Russians? Or do we enjoy ourselves by shooting Germans? No more invasions.”



We were pretty certain something was coming soon by that time; just not sure if we would become radioactive dust or the Soviet Union would collapse.



I am surprised it took until 1989 for the Wall to actually come down.



Regards,